Rounding Third: A's take a big chance on Cespedes

Baseball Betting Lines

02/14/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There was one last major order of business before some baseball teams open camp on Sunday and that was to find a home for Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes.

Well, that has been taken care of, albeit by a team nobody expected, the Oakland Athletics.

It's funny. While updating major league depth charts the other day, I noticed just how thin the A's roster was because their offseason up to this point has been primarily a purge, as starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez were dealt along with closer Andrew Bailey.

In all, Oakland received a total of 10 prospects in those deals, as the team looked toward the future with the hopes of competing by the time they open a new ballpark, hopefully by 2015. That's still not a lock, though.

Now they may have the biggest piece of that puzzle, landing Cespedes with a four-year, $36 million deal. That seems to be an awful lot of money for a player who's barely faced major league pitching from a team that just doesn't do business this way.

And with the way the contract is structured, Cespedes is not eligible for arbitration and can become a free agent after the 2015 season. Meaning, if Cespedes is this five-tool stud who everyone thinks he is going to be, the A's likely won't be able to retain him at that point.

The thought, of course, is that a stadium will be opening just as his deal is expiring and the team will be coming together as a contender, making the A's all that more enticing.

But, it's way too early to even get into that.

Cespedes had been a hot topic all winter, but most felt it was a fait accompli that he would eventually land with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins offered the same amount of money as the A's, but spread it over six years rather than the four in Oakland.

Both Chicago teams, the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles also were said to be in the running.

So why all the fuss?

Well, the baseball public first got wind of the 26-year-old slugger at the 2009 World Baseball Classic, where by all accounts Oakland general manager Billy Beane fell in love with him.

Cespedes hit .458 in his six WBC games, then hit .333 with 33 home runs, 99 RBI and 11 stolen bases over 90 games in Cuba during the 2010-11 season. His 33 home runs were a Cuban National Series record.

He defected from Cuba last winter and was declared a free agent by Major League Baseball on Jan. 25. However, he was not allowed to sign with a team until he was legally cleared by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control.

And that happened on Monday.

Cespedes, whose deal will be finalized once he receives a visa and takes a physical, can play all three outfield positions, but will likely slot in at center field for the A's, where he joins an outfield that already includes the likes of Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Seth Smith, Collin Cowgill and Jonny Gomes.

So, yes, he should be able to contribute right away.

Cespedes will earn $6.5 million in 2012, $8.5 million next season and $10.5 million in each of the final two years of the deal. It's a far cry from the "Moneyball" mentality that has seemed to take on a new life the last few months, given how well the movie did at the box office and was received by critics.

Billy Beane will be the first one to tell you that investing your money in the lottery is not always the best idea. But, sometimes you have to take a chance and think outside the box. And nobody has been more outside the box than Beane.

Even with Cespedes, this team likely won't compete this year. But they will be a lot more fun to watch. And, oh yeah, Manny Ramirez may be joining him by the team breaks for spring training in Phoenix on Sunday.

Stay tuned.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.